DVD did not take off quite as fast as some early predictions, but it has sold faster than videotape, CD, and laserdisc. In fact, before its third birthday in March 2000, DVD had become the most successful consumer electronics entertainment product ever.

Here are some predictions:

• InfoTech (1995) Worldwide sales of DVD players in 1997 will be 800,000. Worldwide sales of DVD-ROM drives in 1997 will be 1.2 million, with sales of 39 million drives in 2000.
• C-Cube (1996) 1 million players and drives in 1997.
• InfoTech (1996) 820,000 DVD-Video players in the first year, with 80 million by 2005.
• Philips (1996) 25 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide by 2000 (10 percent of the projected 250 million optical drives).
• Pioneer (1996) 500,000 DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, with 54 million sold in 2000.
• Pioneer (1996) 400,000 DVD-Video players in 1996, with 11 million by 2000, and 100,000 DVD-Audio players in 1996, with 4 million by 2000.
• Time Warner (1996) 10 million DVD players in the United States by 2002.
• Toshiba (1996) 100,000 to 150,000 DVD-Video players will be sold in Japan between November 1 and December 31, 1996, and 750,000 to 1 million by November 1, 1997. (The actual count of combined shipments by Matsushita, Pioneer, and Toshiba was 70,000 in October through December of 1996.) The total worldwide DVD hardware market is expected to reach 120 million units in the year 2000. The worldwide set-top DVD player market will be 2 million units in the first year, with sales of 20 million in the year 2000.
• Toshiba (1996) 120 million DVD-ROM drives in 2000 (80 percent penetration of 100 million PCs). Toshiba says they will no longer make CD-ROM drives in 2000.
• AMI (1997) An installed base of 7 million DVD-ROM drives by 2000.
• BASES 3 million DVD-Video players sold in the first year, with 13 million sold in the sixth year.
• CEMA (1997) 400,000 DVD-Video players in United States in 1997, with 1 million in 1998.
• Dataquest (1997) Over 33 million shipments of DVD players and drives by 2000.
• Forrester Research (1997) A U.S. base of 53 million DVD-equipped PCs established by 2002 and 5.2 percent of U.S. households (5 million) will have a DVD-V player in 2002; 2 percent will have a DVD-Audio player.
• IDC (1997) 10 million DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 70 million in 2000 (surpassing CD-ROMs), and 118 million in 2001, with over 13 percent of all software available on DVD-ROM in 1998. DVD-R drives will be more than 90 percent of combined CD/DVD-R market in 2001.
• Intel (1997) 70 million DVD-ROM drives by 1999 (sales will surpass CD-ROM drives in 1998).
• Paul Kagan (1997) 800,000 DVD players in the United States in 1997, 10 million in 2000, and 40 million in 2006 (43 percent penetration), and 5.6 million discs sold in 1997, 172 million discs in 2000, and 623 million in 2006.
• Microsoft (Peter Biddle, 1997) 15 million DVD PCs sold in 1998, with 50 million DVD PCs sold in 1999.
• SMD (1997) 100 million DVD-ROM/RAM drives shipped in 2000.
• InfoTech (January 1998) 20 million DVD-Video players worldwide in 2002, with 58 million by 2005. 99 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide in 2005. No more than 500 DVD-ROM titles available by the end of 1998. About 80,000 DVD-ROM titles available by 2005.
• Microsoft (Jim Taylor, 1998) An installed base of 35 million DVD PCs in 1999.
• Screen Digest (December 1998) In 1998, 125,000 DVD-Video players will be in European homes, with 485,000 in 1999, and 1 million in 2000.
• Yankee Group (January 1998) By 1998, 650,000 DVD-Video players will be in use, with 3.6 million by 2001 and 19 million DVD-PCs by 2001.
• Baskerville (April 2000) Worldwide spending on DVD software will surpass that of VHS by 2003. A worldwide installed base of 625 million DVD players will occur by 2010 (55 percent of TV households).
• IDC (July 2000) 70 million DVD players and drives will be sold by year’s end.
• IRMA (April 2000) 12 million players will ship worldwide in 2000.
• Jon Peddie (June 2000): Almost 20 million DVD players will be sold in the United States in 2004.
• Japanese Electronics and Information Technologies Association (December 2000) 37 million DVD players worldwide by 2001.
• Screen Digest (June 2000) The European installed base of DVDVideo players will be 0.3 million in 1998, 1.5 millionin 1999, 5.4 million in 2000, and 47.1 million in 2003.
• DVD Entertainment Group (July 2001) Approximately 30 million DVD players will be sold in the United States by the end of 2001.
• Understanding & Solutions (April 2002) DVD player penetration in the United Kingdom could grow to 70 percent by 2006 (CD player penetration reached only 50 percent in the same time period after its launch).

Here’s reality:

1997

• 349,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the United States (about 200,000 sold into homes)
• 900 DVD-Video titles available in the United States, with over 5 million copies shipped and about 2 million sold
• Over 500,000 DVD-Video players shipped worldwide
• Around 330,000 DVD-ROM drives shipped worldwide with about 1 million bundled DVD-ROM titles
• 60 DVD-ROM titles (mostly bundled)

1998

• 1,089,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the United States (an installed base of 1,438,000)
• 400 DVD-Video titles in Europe (135 movie and music titles)
• 3,000 DVD-Video titles in the United States (2,000 movie and music titles)
• 7.2 million DVD-Video discs purchased

1999

• 4,019,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the United States (an installed base of 5,457,000)
• Over 6,300 DVD-Video titles in the United States
• About 26 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide
• About 75 DVD-ROM titles available in the United States

2000

• 8.5 million DVD-Video players shipped in the United States (an installed base of 13,922,000)
• About 46 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide
• Over 10,000 DVD-Video titles available in the United States
• Belgium: An installed base of 100 thousand
• France: An installed base of 1.2 million
• Germany: An installed base of 1.2 million
• Italy: An installed base of 360 thousand
• Netherlands: An installed base of 200 thousand
• Spain: An installed base of 300 thousand
• Sweden: An installed base of 120 thousand
• Switzerland: An installed base of 250 thousand
• UK: An installed base of 1 million

2001

• 12.7 million DVD-Video players shipped in the United States (An installed base of 26,629,000)
• Over 45 million DVD-ROM drives in the United States
• Over 90 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide
• UK: An installed base of 3 million

2002

• 17 million DVD-Video players shipped in the United States (an installed base of 43,718,000)
• Over 75 million DVD-ROM drives in the United States
• Over 140 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide

For comparison, in 1997 about 700 million audio CD players and 160 million CD-ROM drives were in use worldwide. That same year 1.2 billion CD-ROMs were shipped worldwide with about 46,000 different titles available.

About 80 million VCRs were owned in the United States (89 percent of households), with about 400 million worldwide, and 110,000 VCRs shipped in the first two years after their release. Nearly 16 million VCRs were shipped in 1998. In 2000, about 270 million TVs were owned in the United States, with 1.3 billion worldwide.

When DVDs came out in 1997, under 3 million laserdisc players were being used in the United States. For the latest U.S. player sales statistics, see the CEA page at The Digital Bits. Other DVD statistics and forecasts can be found at IRMA, Media- Line, and Twice.

Industry analyses and forecasts can be purchased from Adams Media Research, the British Video Association, Cahners In-stat, eBrain, IDC, Screen Digest, Understanding & Solutions, and others.